We intuitively use probability to place value on things.
A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush
Proverb
We are all familiar with this proverb. It speaks about probability and value.
Probability also applies in the instance of an unborn child. There are numerous studies that show their probability of surviving from conception to implantation, through the different phases of fetal development, and until birth increases with their age.
- If you plot the probability of survival on a graph what does that tell us about their expected value? It’s reasonable to argue for gradualism in value, that the younger an unborn child is the lower their probability of survival, therefore the lower their overall expected value?
- Is it reasonable to argue for a gradual increase in expected value as they get older and are more likely to survive to birth? How does this compare to the statistics that show support for abortion gradually decreases as the age of the fetus increases?
The low expected value would explain why in vitro fertilization is acceptable and why abortion is statistically more acceptable earlier in a pregnancy.
Look at these statistics from this article on CNN titled “About 2% of babies born in the US are from IVF. Here’s what you need to know about it“
- If 10 eggs are exposed to sperm, about seven will fertilize, she said. Of those seven, only 25% to 50% will grow in the laboratory long enough to be considered a more mature embryo called a blastocyst, Feinberg said.
- From there, depending on the age of the patient, the blastocyst has between a 10% and 60% likelihood of becoming a baby, she said.
- The number of eggs is a large part of how IVF overcomes infertility, she added. Even in a young, healthy patient, about 30% to 50% of the eggs won’t develop into a pregnancy, Chen said.
And these statistics are only talking about the first stage of pregnancy, pre fetus.
More reading
- “Early embryo mortality in natural human reproduction: What the data say” How many human embryos die between fertilisation and birth under natural conditions? It is widely accepted that natural human embryo mortality is high, particularly during the first weeks after fertilisation, with total prenatal losses of 70% and higher frequently claimed.